So the deal is off - though whether its truly a walkaway or part of the game is hard to tell. I don't know what we can possibly add that hasn't been said by someone already (the whole front page of Techmeme has
been taken over for example).
What strikes me most is the difference of interests between Microsoft and Yahoo's managements' and other stakeholders.
- Yahoo (YHOO) stock price went up 50% at the time of the offer, if this is a real breakoff its going to go all the way down again...that is not going to please the stockholders a lot. The dynamics "after" are going to be fairly unpleasant unless The Management have a darn good story
- MSFT stock price has dropped 20% over the period of the offer, and (we hear) that a considerable number of Microsofties are wondering what they could do internally with an alternative of investment of even a decent fraction of this deal's value in their own assets in the space may accomplish. In theory they come out OK either way Yahoo jumps, but in reality they have bid their own weaknesses here so need a story post walkaway.
Paul Kedrosky reckons this
could lose both CEO's their jobs. I think he may be right (though MSFT will come out of this better than YHOO strategically) - and some of the surrounding team won't be unscathed either.