The Mobile Web is dead - long live the Mobile Web

Article on Read Write Web today arguing that just because one (albeit well respected) guy, Russel Beattie, can't make it work, its all over for the Mobile Web:

Beattie's announcement comes just two months after mobile blogger and consultant Michael Mace wrote a much discussed post titled Mobile Applications, RIP. "The business of making native apps for mobile devices is dying, crushed by a fragmented market and restrictive business practices," Mace wrote.

While Mace concludes that apps are being killed by the mobile web, Beattie says even mobile web traffic is a non-starter. His site Mowser specialized in rendering the rest of the web mobile friendly. Except for smartphones with good native browsers, Opera Mini and iPhone users, though - Beattie says the billions of people mobile advocates expected to come online aren't.

"I don't actually believe in the 'Mobile Web' anymore, and therefore am less inclined to spend time and effort in a market I think is limited at best, and dying at worst. I'm talking specifically about sites that are geared 100% towards mobile phones and have little to no PC web presence. Two years ago I was convinced that the mobile web would continue to evolve in the West to mimic what was happening in countries like Japan and Korea, but it hasn't happened, and now I'm sure it isn't going to.
In other words, I think anyone currently developing sites using XHTML-MP markup, no Javascript, geared towards cellular connections and two inch screens are simply wasting their time, and I'm tired of wasting my time."

We've argued before on Broadstuff that the "Pure Mobile" Web is dead in the water, especially post iPhone, as its now quite clear that the Future of Mobile is with the Real Internet.

But rather than us saying it yet again, here are some of the commentators on the article - here's Jason Grigsby:

First, when Russell says Mobile Web, he is narrowly defining it as "developing sites using XHTML-MP markup, no Javascript, geared towards cellular connections and two inch screens are simply wasting their time." Basically, he is describing building sites for pre-iPhone mobile devices.

What we know now is that given the right browser that mobile web usage takes off. And every phone manufacturer is working to copy the iPhone experience. Russell seems to equate this iPhone-like experience with desktop browsing.

Russell's argument is that the mobile web is moving towards the iPhone experience. He acknowledges that Mowser was a "short term bet against Moore's law." And he lists the numbers that show that web browsing increases for iPhone users.

To put this in perspective, Russell is arguing that there is no money to be made using Gopher (xhtml-mp w/o javascript) now that Mosaic (iPhone) has been released and consumers have released that they don't want anything less than the Mosaic or better experience.

That's not proclaiming the end of the mobile web. It is the beginning.

And here's Betsy:

I've been one of the people chasing after the mobile web for close to a decade now. I wanted desperately to be an early adopter. Bought the painfully slow AT&T brick-phone back in the day, signed up for pricy data plans, tried (and failed) to use mobile apps on my cell phones.

Finally, I gave it up as dead. Bought my iPod Touch last December purely as an iPod replacement and long-overdue PIM.

Guess what? I'm also using it as a mobile device, much to my surprise. Now, most evenings, I'm not even bothering to boot up the laptop - instead, I can check work email, my personal Gmail account, Google Reader and Twitter - all from the Touch using my house WiFi network, from the comfort of my living room couch.

I never thought I'd say this a year ago - but now that my Sprint contract has expired, I'm waiting for the 3G iPhone - and I'll be *so there*.

But I do want to pick up on something an old colleague, Miles Galliford wrote as well:

These are interesting comments from an industry insider. Coming at it from the other direction, I have asked many of my clients, who run niche content websites, whether their clients are demanding better mobile access to their information. Not one (out of over 100 site owners) has said they think mobile access is important. These sites cover both B2C and B2B subjects in the US and Europe.

Here's our summary (if you want a view of all our more detailed thoughts, type "Planet Mobile" in the blog search box on the top right corner):

(i) The Original "All Mobile" web was a non starter, it was invented by Planet Mobile to fits its own techno-economic needs and never appealed to customers

(ii) It takes outsiders to shake Planet Mobile up every time (think SMS, Blackberry, iTunes, iPhone) and show it what is possible, there is little reason to think this will be different now

(iii) As we argued at the time and onwards, the iPhone is different because it shows users they can have what they always wanted, so they aren't going to settle for less now

(iv) However, they are still a very small adopter base in total, so current demand is still low.

But it will grow - anyone who has used small laptops, the iPhone or even gone up the learning curve of various clunky smartphones will know the potential of the mobile Web. And where today's early adopters rush in, tomorrow mass market will eventually tread.

It's just not here yet.

(By the way, Beattie says traffic at Mowser was poor and 80% of it was made up of porn seekers - sounds like a standard Net app then ).