An early requiem for Facebook, as the bright young things go a Twittering

So Scott Karp has blogged about using Twitter again. This tallies with what I have seen since December, a huge uplift in Twitter usage (we're also culprits, but that's 'cos we were thrown off Facebook, and Twitter is "the other place" where all the geeks who won't use email hang out

This is in counterpoint to the other trend we've noticed, viz early adopters saying they are unadopting / cutting down on / taking a sabbatical from Facebook. Added to this is Facebook's increasing habit of booting off nom de plumes - many of whom are bloggers, and they (we) do talk about it.

As these things are (anti)viral, it will take time for Facebook to reap the whirlwind it is still busy sowing, but I thought we may as well get our Requiem in early - prediction is that by summer this year, the A-list will all be busily blogging away on the New New Thing, and Facebook will be in the "MySpace" box - there, largely uncool and ignored, and full of a large number of Ghost Town accounts. Big difference is MySpace was cheap to buy and has a huge resource base behind it....

Unless....they become cool again, but we think they've jumped that shark - it's hard to see what can bring it back. Mobile Phone deals etc are not exactly cutting edge stuff, and I can'te see them easing off on all teh things that people hate about them - that $15bn valuation keeps their noses firmly clamped to that grindstone - the most likely way out there is a new CEO and then a Solemn Admission of "changing market conditions" requiring a re-evaluation of core values.....

Wouldn't be surprised to see that by end of summer either....