The iPhone as the strategic gamechanger in the UK mobile industry

The incredible buzz surrounding the iPhone's launch signals great opportunity - and risk - for the European mobile industry, both the operators and the handset makers.

Operators first....

There have been rumours that only certain operators will market the device in the UK, and this means that there is a one-off shape change available in a hyper-competitive market where all the major players have roughly equal shares of the market (c 1/4 of 90% each) and none have managed to pull ahead to get the virtuous circle that dominance brings.

However, the iPhone is the chance to change that - it is the one thing that will make people - serious, high net worth people with contracts, not freebie surfers - switch from one provider to another and stick.

Its not just that its a "good enough" mobile internet device - 3's X series is there already - its because it has a great UI - the sort us "PC" based netheads have been complaining for the last 3-4 years that Planet Mobile has not bothered to build.

Its also because we know and love how the iTune/iPod model works - behind that device is an end to end delivery system that (i) works properly and (ii) does not gouge your pocket, and we know that Apple knows that and trust them to deliver it here as well.

This will mean that the pressure on both content and operators transport costs will be immense*, because - guess what - that iPhone can use other transport mechanisms and can sideload other content - welcome to Arbitrage, guys !

So...pity the operators that don't get early distributors, but know also the ones that do have a tiger by the tail


Handset manufacturers next.....

You have to ask "what were they doing all this time"....its not as if this iPhone device should have taken them by surprise - it was after all announced awhile ago, and mobile customers have clamoured for these sorts of function for years.

Will it give them the requisite kick up their collective behinds? They still have immense market power, and rising to this challenge can only be good overall.

Postscript...just seen that Publishing 2.0 and Umair have made a similar point re US plays.

And as for 3rd Parties....

Apple integrates its systems very well into an end to end delivery chain, from content collection through to end device...other players in more dis-integrated horizontal markets will now have to put together services that are as seamless and efficient - no pointing at each other when the download fails, no racking of profit on profit...

...just as Apple skewered the mobile music market with the iPod, similar shall occur here unless Things Change

It also gives a great opportunity for other highly branded players, as no doubt the other handset manufacturers (and operators not given the iPhone) will be desperate to find counters.

This is the day that the IT industry has taken its first serious swing at Planet Mobile, rather than working within it.

* Not to mention the pressure on the mobile walled gardens to open into the Apple walled garden....

(An afterthought...this fits in with a point I made following the Essential Web conference last week, where it seemed that this year many of the mobile startups were more interested in bypassing the current operators - and even handset makers - than working with them...you could smell gamechange in the air).

Postscript...this post to an extent argues with our hypothesis, but still ignores the impact of a tipping point change that the iPhone can bring in a hypercompetitive market.