This is what a STEM skills shortage looks like?

These graphs come from The Atlantic, and contradict a supposed Science/Technology/Engineering/Maths skills shortage we continuously hear about:





So what is happening? How can you have a skills shortage and a decling level of employment for skilled PhDs. Well, one argument is that they are over-educated and useless outside academe. In fact, one of the commentors to the piece notes that it doesn't look at the BSc and MSc data. But, before I am accused of having Mr Wolowitz Syndrome (as only a lowly holder of a Masters in Eng myself), I must note that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that IF there was a major skills shortage, these graphs wouldn't look like this (the 2001 dotcom spike is a clue...) and all the BScs and MScs would be over-employed and companies would also be sucking in PhDs post haste.

Neither do I see a huge increase in STEM wages over the period of the supposed shortage of the last 2 decades or so, which, if there was a vast shortage, you would expect to see.

Thus, I think there is something else going on, which is that STEM graduates are not prepared to work for the sort of wages that those always wailing about a "shortage" in STEM skills want to pay. My hypothesis on this is based on three streams of data:

(i) some pro-bono work I did some years ago in the UK for one of the Engineering institutes, who bewailed the lack of people (i) going into their branch of Engineering and (ii) if they graduated, staying in Engineering. My research showed that the salaries for Engineers in the UK were poor compared to what a bright kid could earn doing something else at University, and (ii) an Engineering graduate could instantly earn 2-3 x in Finance, Consulting or IT (I think IT is now where Engineering was a decade or so ago, fwiw). Their solution was to try and design an outreach programme to go into schools, rather than fight for better salaries for their Chartered Engineers. To the best of my knowledge, this situation hasn't changed substantially.

(ii) I know quite a few people who have done natural science degress, some with lots of hard maths and physics, but salaries in this area in the UK are lower than they can get teaching, never mind using their skills in IT, Finance etc.

(iii) I know a lot of engineers, from many OECD countries. Of those I know, those still in engineering 10 years after graduation are less than 25%. All the others are in - IT, consulting, banking, media....mainly because it pays a lot more.

You get what you pay for, and if you won't pay*.....

Now admittedly The Atlantic data is US based and my datapoints are from the UK, but (having lived in the US) I have heard similar tales of woe about STEM pay in traditional engineering and science R&D vs other opportunities.

* I have no hard proof, but I'd hypothesize a strong correlation between those wailing about a skills shortage and those using (cheaper) skilled labour from developing countries.