A hard look at the Print Media's future

An interesting article on the "Future of Print Media"in INMA, its the sort of analysis that I prefer - look at the trends with a hard eye, and build scenarios that use the facts, not wishes. Here's the argument:

- Ad revenue in nearly ALL categories has been trending down for many years, to the tune of half of the industry’s revenues in less than a decade.

- Print numbers by and large have been trending down. (Less in community newspapers than in metros for sure.)

- Readers’ habits are undeniably changing toward online, smartphones, and tablets.

None of those statements are earth-shattering; none of them can be disputed without risk of appearing insane. But let’s take a look at them in a factual way and then address the hypothetical straw man approach, as well.

Ad revenue. While the numbers certainly vary by market, it is probably safe to say that most newspapers fall in the loss of traditional revenue plan of 3% to 6% per year. That also falls in within the historic rate over the past few years, as well. Simply project that 3% to 6% loss out over five to 10 years to determine when you close your doors.

Print numbers and revenue. Traditional audience is shrinking by the same percentage per year. Yes, there are some holding their own for now, and this timeline may vary by market. But, once again, project out that 3% to 6% loss over five to 10 years to determine your tipping point with the current traditional business model.

Reader habits. I like to view reader habits in two categories: baby boomers or above and then all the rest. I have long said that once the baby boomers lose their eyesight, traditional newspapers are done. We are seeing this pattern emerge even today. However, here is another fact that actually works in our favour: We can increase prices on this group over the near future to help offset some of the other declines to effectively gain some additional time to alter our direction and battle plans.

The argument is that media owners don't like these trends and the implications, and so tend to roll out a more comfortable scenarios to believe, not so much ("straw men" as "hollow men" in my view) such as:

- The economy will turn around!

- We just need better people to work smarter!

- People still like the newspaper in their hands!

As the author points out, the first is a faint hope, the second is observably wrong - there are already smart, hard-working people in the industry and yet things are not getting better - and all those people who prefer a newspaper in their hands are in fact buying large numbers of smart tablets and e-readers, or getting older and shuffling off this mortal coil.

The hard thing is to build realistic scenarios, step one is to calculate a "worsr case" - which here is something like a business with:

- Ad spending reduced (to very low, maybe zero) - so revenues need to come from elsewhere
- No print option (except maybe a self print)
- Web, Smartphone and tablet editions only

Take a blank sheet of paper, and design a media business that operates in this milieu. Oh yes, its's been done already.....but, can even this last?