Yahoo, Mayer and the triumph of Hope over Experience

One has to pity Marissa Mayer, as soon as she climbed into the Yahoo hot seat the stock price rocketed (see above). That is the sign of naive investors thinking one person can turn around a megatanker in a few weeks. Now of course, 6 months later, without the anticipated miracle, there are rumblings of discontent - CNN:

Analysts want to see a return to strong growth, not just stabilization. BCG Financial analyst Colin Gillis put his thoughts in a haiku: "Time for the next stage, of the turnaround story: drive revenue growth," he wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.

Gillis called Yahoo's display performance "anemic," and he's not happy with revenue from Yahoo's search partnership with Microsoft's Bing. Mayer herself called Yahoo's search results "disappointing" last quarter, and analysts will look to her after Monday's earnings report for more clarity on what she plans to change.

J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth offered tepid optimism about Mayer's reign, saying in a note Friday that he was "encouraged" by her focus on user experience, search, mobile, and more. Like Gillis, he wants more information on changes to search and display, plus investment and recruitment efforts.

The message from the Analysts, as CNN notes, is that Mayer's honeymoon period may be ending. One assumes the short sellers are lining up now, just to add to Mayer's woes....

Our message to the Analysts and Yahoo Investors is that expecting a dramatic turnaround of a basket case company in 6 months is nuts extremely unrealistic. Prepare to be eaten by your shorts....