Bebo and Facebook - some valuation lessons from Last fm?

In the post below we calculated that at $280m for c 15m users, Last fm was worth about $18 / user, and we also noted that MySpace went at about $22 / user*, Photobucket at c $13 / user.

* Initial number was incorrect in previous post, this post has also been corrected

So...what does this imply for Bebo, which was recently reported to have received a bid for near $ 1 bn by Yahoo.

If one takes the c 30m users that are being bandied about (quick Google search) as Bebo's user base, and make some heroic assumptions that the NPV of user value and growth paths are about the same, that gives:

At Photobucket valuation c $ 390m

At Last.fm valuation c $550m

At MySpace valuation c $660m

(All the usual caveats apply in valuations of course, but it does seem that a pattern is emerging - the more of a "new broadcast" media play it is, the more it is worth - but YouTube at c $70 / user was probably on the high side, even with a Video media and market Leader premium)

Facebook numbers are reportedly half of Bebo's (health warning - one network's definition of "users" seldom equal anothers'), but we will assume equal optimism in reporting, so one would assume roughly half the valuation of Bebo - yet Facebook was reportedly under a $1.6 bn offer from Yahoo last year and there are rumours that Google is running the ruler over it now.

Of course, both Facebook and Bebo claim they are not for sale, but the example of Friendster casts a long shadow across the "generic" SocNet game.......these things do have a shelf life

We are also told that StumbleUpon will be bought by eBay today for between $45 and $70m...with 2m users thats a value of between $22.50 and $35 / user. The lower figure would seem more in line, but this is eBay doing the buying - they paid $50 / user for Skype when it was making $1/ user / annum

Postscript...bought at $75m....apparently its 2.3m users right now - thats c $32.60 a user....that implies a signficantly higher estimate of growth, or wealth transfer - or both - vs the average Last.fm user