Drone Wars 2015

Readers of this blog will know we are following the intersection of robotics and the internet, especially flying robots (aka the Internet Of Flying Things). News in is that Iran has built its first drone is interesting (see clip above). The Atlantic magazine notes:

But how concerned should we be about Tehran's latest toy? According to the Council on Foreign Relations' Micah Zenko -- not much. So far, he told me, Iran hasn't been able to mount precision-guided weapons on the Shahed-129 like the kind U.S. drones rely on to perform targeted killings. And even before it can attack a target, the machine has to get there -- a task made more complicated by Iran's elementary command-and-control infrastructure. Even if everything went to plan and the drone escaped detection -- an unlikely event in any case -- Iran's military would still need to keep in contact with it to operate the thing.

"And," Zenko added, "since it is a country with a military budget under $10 billion and surrounded by perceived threats, they are compulsive exaggerators about what their military could do."

I think that is hubris of the highest order, frankly. The whole point of drones is thay are 2+ orders of magnitude cheaper to develop than human piloted fighting aircraft. It also shows a scary lack of the remembrance of things past. In 1914, aircraft were used for scouting and attacking enemy on the ground. By 1915 they were used to fight each other. I'd predict by 2015 we will have our first reports of drone attacks against other drones. The only other question is whether a drone will shoot down an aircraft (probably a helicopter) or another drone first

By its design (long, thin, wings) this drone is a glider, ie built for scouting, not fighting - but that is just how it started in 1914 too, and by 1916 proper fighter aircraft had arrived, in large numbers. Perish the thought that history will repeat itself here.