Yes, we told you it would crash,
in June 2011.
I twt'd this on Friday:
"the Groupon biz model is to use Other People's Money to grab eyeballs, then IPO the f*cker before it comes crashing down - Dotcom II"
And then worse came out the woodwork with their filing. Seems they are technically insolvent and the bigger they get, the more they lose, along with the fact that later investors were paying for earlier investors' exits, and the IPO will no doubt pay for the current investors' exits. Greater Fool Theory in full technicolour! (In fact some have been more direct, calling it a Ponzi scheme)
We can only apologise to the readers of our Bubblewatch series, in that we never predicted an attempt to IPO a Greater Fool Theory dotcom business before the big one had gone out. Move the notch up one (see chart above). DotCom II is nearly here now....But a whole bunch of dumb pension funds will invest - with your money. And This Time It Is Different, as everyone seemed to arguing at D9.
Of course it is...........
There is nothing wrong intrinsically with an online coupon business, there was something seriously wrong with one at that starting valuation.
But the reason we are not writing this blog from our own Caribbean island is that its a lot harder to predict exactly
When.