Hey Dude - you shrunk our bubble

Facebook went below $30 today, on its way to a 25% price drop from float price amidst lawsuits, disgruntled investors etc etc. But we are more interested in what this has done to the whole Social Media bubble we have been watching.

By re-pricing and increasing the number of shares floated to grab every penny that was ever going to be on the table, and then having such a fiasco of an IPO, it may be that Facebook has burst the whole Social Media bubble. Just as all boats rise in an incoming tide, all sink in the great sucking sound of a rapidly retreating one - Zynga et al have all fallen far farther, far faster than Facebook.

But, of far more selfish interest to us is the future of the Broadstuff Bubble-O-meter. Right now it looks like Facebook has also closed the market for future IPOs. In the beginning of May the Social Media space was hyped to the nines. At its height we saw stories of retail investors (aka "suckers") throwing 40-K, School Fee money and various other essential savings into the gamble (Bubble-O-Meter stage 9), but then - instead of a pop and a frothy rush to Stage 10 and a horde of wannabeee SocMed IPOs behind it, there was a slow hissing sound of a bursting bubble, and by end May the Bubble-O-Meter lies spent on the floor, like the previous nights' rubber johnny, leaving a stain of a high watermark that came - and went - in a matter of minutes. One thing is for certain, the bubble ain't going to re-inflate for quite a while (I'd bet a lot on not in 2012, and probably not 12 months) no mattre how hard the Silicon Valley PR machine huffs and puffs.

And so, we are left with large questions - Will Facebook do a Bubble-O-Meter Stage 10 and buy an Old Media darling with a $16 billion war chest? Or how far back has the Bubble-o-Meter fallen? Or maybe both are true, if Facebook took all the loot on the Social Meedja table so there ain't no more for anyone else? In either case, how long will it take to re-inflate the Social Media bubble? Will it ever inflate again - is this it? Will the Silicon Valley economy collapse again? How many of the Silicon Valley Cheerleader blogs will survive? What Phoenix 3.0's will emerge from the ashes? Has Facebook smartly engineered a Big Bubble Bang behind it to ensure no one can follow it out the gate? How much more can we flog the Bubble-o-meter now that the horse has bolted?

At least we can predict the floor for the stock - with $16bn in the kitty, we calculate Facebook shares are worth at least $6!

Postscript - last Friday I gave a talk on the role of hype in bubble formation - as Facebook was IPO'ng - and noted that once the hype peaks and the slide into the Slough of Despond starts, it is a quick fall for a long way, and an irreversible one at that. Lets see if Facebook follows form.