Wisdom of Crowds? Statistics? Naah, get an Octopus

We have been reflecting on the poor performance of "Wisdom of Crowds" prediction markets and on historical Statistics to predict future occurrences, as shown in the chart above (see the original article here)

News reached Broadstuff Towers yesterday that a new, and better, prediction method has been found - an octopus:

The creature, known as Paul, has correctly chosen all of his German homeland's results so far. This time hie is predicting Spain vs Holland

With food in both boxes to attract Paul, it is then a matter of waiting until he opens one of them to determine his predicted winner. The eight-legged mystic has a perfect record at this tournament - and is said to have had an 80% success rate during Euro 2008.

Here he is on YouTube



I recall a test done many years ago - the Monkey Market Fund - where stocks were picked based on where monkeys were looking, and it outperformed the stock market average. Maybe ancient soothsayers had it right after all - who needs algorithms when you have entrails.

This being South Africa's World Cup, I am surprised that there have been no stories of the local sangomas divining the Footballl results.....

Update - And, of course, Spain won...........