Will Android play IBM/DOS to Apple's iPhone?

This is the script - Google's Android takes the place of the IBM PC/MS-DOS play (DOS, for the yoof, was the first Microsoft PC Operating System*, wot came before Windows) in the emerging Smartphone market, knocking out the others and pegging Apple back to its typical 15-20% of any computing market (of the highest margin gear, of course). Figures recently released show Android has doubled in share from 2.7% of the market to 5%, against iPhone's 25% and Blackberry's (read CP/M) 42% (see above)

Is this possible? Well, one person who I trust reviewed his experience of the AndroidoPhone on Twitter:

cluttered ui which punishes mistakes. forces you to learn new non- obvious interactions. screen doesn't work in daylight. no apps

Which he followed up with:

Not an android developer? get an iPhone

However, according to the article quoted above Android is the second most desired platform after the Apple now. So can it play the IBM/DOS role? PR spin or reality? Three things here:

- it seems the Android OS/UI is as user hostile as DOS ever was, so no barrier there . The difference was that compared to what came before you could do a lot more, on more powerful kit, with DOS. IBM's killer play was the PC with (gasp) 10Mb Hard disk at a decent price. Everyone had to have it!

- in the DOS/Apple wars, the DOS platform was open, Apple was closed so the developers flocked to DOS and unseated Apple, groovy Rip-Off-The-Wall Ads or not. This time round, Apple has learned the lesson so it has a massive community of developers building Apps already.

- Early DOS machines were sold by retailers with lots of support, which punters loved. Google has used more of a BOFO approach (Buy One and F*ck Off) which has not won friends and influenced enemies as much

- Microsoft were not The Borg at the time, they were seen - believe it or not - as quite groovy people. And everyone moaned about Big Blue but respected their ability to build good hardware. Who is the Groovy Guy in the Googlecamp?

In short, for Google to play IBM/MS-DOS and take centre stage this time round is going to be lot harder, as Apple has learned its lessons. If anything, Google seem to be behaving a bit like Apple did in the 1980s - Arrogant attitude, Average kit and no Apps.

Update...and 2 days later, the story hits Techmeme - again, from Ars Tech this time.

*Well, technically DOS belonged to someone else, but MIcrosoft convinced IBM they had it - its a long story of intrigue and so on.....