broadstuff

All the angst about England going out in the last 16 of the World Cup has me befuddled, as its exactly what was predicted statistically by its rankings over the last 18 months (Germany has been Top 4 on average, England nudging Top 8 ). Its the same old litany of English football - the British media overhypes the team above what the odds say is plausible, then there is the predictable and inevitable disappointment, the ritual sacrifice of the Manager, the FA Inquest, the Reports, the Burying Under The Carpet, the New Favourite Manager appointed to the hysterical plaudits of the Football press, and the same sad cycle again 2 years later.

(You may be able to lie with statistics, but its a lot easier without them ;-0 )

Anyway, it may be interesting to see what the Prediction Markets are saying about the Last 8. I looked at the Inklings market, mainly because its data is publically visible unlike Yahoo's much heralded Predictor (Note to Yahoo - putting stuff people pay for behind a wall is sensible, but free stuff????)

As you can see in the diagram above, the prediction market is fairly clear about Brazil's probability of winning, and about Spain's. The probabilities for Argentina v Germany and Uruguay v Ghana are far closer. Incidentally, FIFA results largely agree except they place Germany (6th ranked) above Argentina (7th ranked), and Spain (2nd ranked) way above them).

(erratum - I have Spain beating Argentina (FIFA prediction) whereas the Prediction Market has it the other way)

So, thats the prediction market view as of close of play today.....lets see how it turns out.

Update 1 - Holland beats Brazil, totally against the predictions

Update 2 - Uruguay beat Ghana in a very close game by a cynical handball stopping a certain goal. In Rugby that would be a penalty try, game to Ghana. Football is not a "sport", and its laws are an ass.

Update 3 - Germany hammers Argentina 4-0 against prediction

Update 4 - Spain narrowly beat Paraguay 1-0

I had to write the article for the headline alone, but its true:

The founder of Digital Playground, one of the porn heavyweights in the U.S., told ConceivablyTech that it will abandon Flash as soon as the desktop browsers fully support HTML 5. We also learned that 3D is just not there yet and that online movie streaming is unlikely to replace Blu-ray discs anytime soon.

The reason is that HTML 5 is making it redundant:

We have HTML 5, which is generally praised as the next major evolutionary step for HTML that automatically questions the future of Flash. Conceivably, Flash could co-exist next to HTML 5, but if we look at the possibilities that are provided by HTML 5, it is entirely possible that Flash will be obsolete in the not distant future.

And thus the Adult industry, a tech kingmaker in the past, is looking at the next thing - the iPhone! No flash on the iPhone + lots of iPhone usetrs + a wa of making money from content = HTML 5.

That will probably be the evolving story of all online video media going forward, at least until there is another way of making money from it.

I was quite intrigued by this piece from the McKinsey Quarterly, as two people whose views I respect were quite negative about it. In essence the piece argues that two insights are key about Social Media. The first is (I abridge):

The power of importance

An effective way for a brand to be useful in the context of social networks is to make people who originate a word-of-mouth conversation seem important within their own social environment. Recognition by peers is a powerful motivator, and brands that allow users to gain it deliver real perceived value. When users publicize that recognition, it translates into word of mouth. Companies can confer this kind of importance—for example, by issuing achievement “badges” that users can post to their Facebook profiles or by deploying leader boards or achievement scores of all types. As Web sites evolve to become increasingly dynamic experiences that let people interact in real time, the value to core users of being recognized for their prominence in a community will only increase.

and the second....

The allure of virtual items

It’s our strong intuition that virtual items play an important role in facilitating virtual word of mouth. This belief, at its core, is based on observing user behavior. While the notion of virtual goods—nonphysical objects used in online communities and games—still puzzles many executives, it’s quite apparent that consumers love them. People acquire or compete for virtual items obsessively on Foursquare, Zynga, and many other sites. It is estimated that virtual goods have become a very real $5 billion industry worldwide.

So why do consumers pay real money for online objects that don’t actually exist? Their motives reinforce our notion that users seek online importance: they purchase virtual goods primarily for self-expression (such as virtual houses or virtual gifts) and for recognition (such as virtual badges for becoming, say, the “mayor” of a bar on Foursquare). These behaviors are too widespread and intense to be fads, and marketers need to recognize them as meaningful. Brands should actively experiment with ways to use virtual goods as catalysts of word-of-mouth media.

And a final thought:

One final recommendation: no gimmicks. Forget dancing monkeys, artificial contests, or stupid tricks; they add no value and waste people’s time. A commitment to being useful in social-media activities means a commitment to creating only high-quality interactions.

So, now having read it, my thoughts are that:

(i) For anybody who is familiar with the Social Media story over the last few years these are hardly "insights" - it is pretty basic stuff, but then the intended audience of this article is mainly large corporate types (the majority of the readers of said Journal) to whom this is all new, rather than the early adopters. It's aim - and thus language - is to speak of Social Media in the lingua franca of Large Corporations (the piece's author works for a large media company now - 'nuff said. ....). The TLA's and Re-Engineering Methodologies are sure to follow now

(ii) To give the author some credit, much of the Early Adopter thinking is about the technical "how" (or even wow!, gee whiz!, etc) rather than the economic "why" or the executive's "what". For all that these are not new insights, they are definitely ones that are Following The Money - ie these are major areas that are directly translateable into the business plans that mainstream adoption requires. In that, it does make a refreshing change from the financial otherworldliness of some early day Social Media evangelists

(iii) To an extent this is "The Death of Social Media" as Adriana Lukas puts it - ie it is the end of it as an early adopter experimentation era, a transition from the romance of infinite possibilities to the pragmatism of (very) finite probabilities, the shift from small, sexy startups to large, boring conglomerates, a shift from huge promises to cheese paring profits (and Google too is having another go, by the way.) and very likley its absorption into the Standard Business Processes. (The real end is when the SAP module comes out....)

The risk is that in the corporate rush to Colonise, Taylorize and Strip Mine the Social Media Golden Goose, said Goose is strangled by the corporate's red tape decks - as the author notes:

Word-of-mouth marketing through social networks could emerge as an important tool in the marketer’s arsenal. That will depend on whether marketers can tame the fundamentally unpredictable and serendipitous nature of word of mouth without losing what makes it so valuable in the first place—its authenticity.

Ah yes....authenticity. Been a bit of a problem so far, that. Still, if one can fool enough of the punters for enough of the time.....

What would I do differently if I were the McKinsey Quarterly?. I would probably reach out to a host of other alumni who are also working in this area to get a richer, more nuanced view.

Like me for example

News reaches us today that Facebook has reacted to the global worres about privacy abuse by hiring a Beltway Lobbyist - Washington Post:

Facebook said Thursday that it is expanding its global policy team and poached from the White House, hiring as its new vice president of global public policy, Marne Levine, chief of staff of the National Economic Council.

In her new role for the Silicon Valley social networking Goliath, Levine will oversee the company’s interaction with governments and non-governmental organizations around the globe as the company reaches 500 million users worldwide, Facebook said in an announcement Thursday.

She will be based in Washington, just as the firm builds its local policy and lobbying team to address growing interest by lawmakers and regulators on how the social networking giant is dealing with issues such as copyright, security of children online, and privacy.

Levine will also help the firm build its policy teams in Asia, the Americas and Europe, the company said.

If you can't beat 'em, buy a Lobbyist (or, if you pefer this homily; when the going gets tough, the tough get lobbying). We have thus updated our Facebook Privacy Algorithm to take this new step into account (see above).

The serious (as opposed to satirical) point is that Facebook has gone from groovy startup to large lobbying corporate in remarkably short time, driven in the main by the increasing conflict between their commercial model which demands exposing ever more private user data, and the growing concerns of privacy activists, legislators and - increasingly - citizens.

This follows fast on the heels on the publication of a Facebook Fanbook (every large US privacy invading company has one....)

What is it with Apple Fanboi's? The diagram above was drawn with respect to the iPad a few weeks ago, but its all happening again with the iPhone 4 (replace Curry's with Carphone Warehouse in the UK etc etc).

The only conclusion I can come to that describes this odd behaviour is that Apple fanbois get sexual pleasure from queueing in front of Apple stores. Come to think of it, maybe its the only type of sexual pleasure they get in the real world

An opportunity to understand the economics of online influence - Mashable:

Virgin America has partnered with Klout, an analytics service that tracks users’ influence on Twitter (based on variables such as the quality and number of followers and retweets), to extend free flights (plus tax) to influencers in Toronto.

The offer includes free round-trip airfare (Wi-Fi included) between Toronto and San Francisco (SFO) or Los Angeles (LAX) between June 23 and August 23. Those who received invitations for the offer — whether or not they decide to accept the flight that comes with it — were also invited to Virgin America’s Toronto Launch Event on June 29.

...............

We spoke with one person who received (and plans to accept) the offer — Breanna Hughes, a dating blogger and Product Manager at Artez Interactive in Toronto. Hughes has nearly 3,000 followers and a Klout score of 42 on a scale of 100. She kindly shared a snapshot of her Klout profile and the offer e-mail, which we’ve posted below.

A quick look at expedia show that a return flight from Toronto to San Farncisco in the period is betwee £500 and $600, and if we use Breanna Hughes' 3000 followers thats about $0.17 to $0.2 per follower.

Of course, that is the market value - the cost of filling those seats, assuming as I do that they are probably empty otherwise, allows two observations:

(i) Firstly, the actual cost to the supplier is minimal - those planes are flying anyway so the marginal cost of a blogger bum on an otherwise empty seat is a fraction of theticket value - say 20% tops for all direct costs incurred - so its about $0.034 to $0.04 per follower. Lets assume that Breanna is at the low end of the folllower count and she is 80% of the mean, this allows us to assume its about $0.025 per follower - about half a nickel in US speak, about two pence (tuppence) in UK speak

(ii) Secondly, this is the way influencers will be rewarded in the short term - bartering between a dubious metric (Klout's "influence" metric is one of many and its impossible to tell who is right at the moment) and people who have surplus assets that have alarge arbitrage between face value and marginal cost.

Now, what I don't know is how many jollies per annum Breanna will be offered, lets assume one a month, so that follower value rises by about an order of magnitude - about a dime in US speak, or 20p in Uk terms

An opportunity to understand the economics of online influence - Mashable:

Virgin America has partnered with Klout, an analytics service that tracks users’ influence on Twitter (based on variables such as the quality and number of followers and retweets), to extend free flights (plus tax) to influencers in Toronto.

The offer includes free round-trip airfare (Wi-Fi included) between Toronto and San Francisco (SFO) or Los Angeles (LAX) between June 23 and August 23. Those who received invitations for the offer — whether or not they decide to accept the flight that comes with it — were also invited to Virgin America’s Toronto Launch Event on June 29.

...............

We spoke with one person who received (and plans to accept) the offer — Breanna Hughes, a dating blogger and Product Manager at Artez Interactive in Toronto. Hughes has nearly 3,000 followers and a Klout score of 42 on a scale of 100. She kindly shared a snapshot of her Klout profile and the offer e-mail, which we’ve posted below.

A quick look at expedia show that a return flight from Toronto to San Farncisco in the period is betwee £500 and $600, and if we use Breanna Hughes' 3000 followers thats about $0.17 to $0.2 per follower.

Of course, that is the market value - the cost of filling those seats, assuming as I do that they are probably empty otherwise, allows two observations:

(i) Firstly, the actual cost to the supplier is minimal - those planes are flying anyway so the marginal cost of a blogger bum on an otherwise empty seat is a fraction of theticket value - say 20% tops for all direct costs incurred - so its about $0.034 to $0.04 per follower. Lets assume that Breanna is at the low end of the folllower count and she is 80% of the mean, this allows us to assume its about $0.025 per follower - about half a nickel in US speak, about two pence (tuppence) in UK speak

(ii) Secondly, this is the way influencers will be rewarded in the short term - bartering between a dubious metric (Klout's "influence" metric is one of many and its impossible to tell who is right at the moment) and people who have surplus assets that have alarge arbitrage between face value and marginal cost.

Now, what I don't know is how many jollies per annum Breanna will be offered, lets assume one a month, so that follower value rises by about an order of magnitude - about a dime in US speak, or 20p in Uk terms

Apple is the latest to get into the location data mining gold rush - LA Times:

Apple Inc. is now collecting the "precise," "real-time geographic location" of its users' iPhones, iPads and computers.

In an updated version of its privacy policy, the company added a paragraph noting that once users agree, Apple and unspecified "partners and licensees" may collect and store user location data.

And if you don't agree to the new T&C?

When users attempt to download apps or media from the iTunes store, they are prompted to agree to the new terms and conditions. Until they agree, they cannot download anything through the store.

Charming. Nothing like a spot of voluntary opt in via involuntary service cessation. This is but the start, as you can still switch your location tracker off on the iPhone - no doubt over time many functions willl just stop working if you do though.

Apple says the data is anonymous and does not personally identify users, but that's incorrect - as the LA times notes, large specific data sets can be used to identify people based on behavior patterns. Why the move - Advertising, of course:

On Monday, Apple also rolled out its new advertising platform, iAd, for the latest version of its iPhone operating system (iOS 4). The company may well be integrating the location information into its advertising system -- for instance, to help local shops sell coupons to users in the neighborhood.

They are already taking revenue from selling the device and aggregating/selling the content, to take a rake from location and Ad serving is as close to a total end to end value extraction as you can get.

The quid in this pro quo seems to be to give the vendor access to your location data too.

An increasing number of iPhone apps ask users for their location, which is then used by the application or even uploaded to the app's maker. Apps like the Twitter application Tweetie and Google Maps make frequent use of location data, either to help the user get oriented geographically or to associate the user's action with a specific location (as when a tweet is geotagged).

However, owing to the value chain lock-up there certainly won't be much value left for any application content provider (assuming there is any now), so this is not just caveat emptor, its caveat vendor as well.

One of the main points of mobile telephony over the last two decades has been its closeness to the user, and its use as a private device. I await with interest the public reaction to apps that won't work unless iPhone location beacon is turned "on". Maybe is just my view, but over the last decade many location tracking devices have been trialled and failed as people - by and large - do not like to be tracked all the time, or set the expectation that they are alwys trackable.

I was in South Africa - my home country - last week (hence the lack of posts on Broadstuff). Now, as many of our readers may be aware, there is a small matter of the World Cup in South Africa at the moment. No doubt by now you are inspired by the undoubted current and future (all we have to do is beat France 4-0*....) success of our national team (Bafana Bafana - The Boys! The Boys!) to find their inner South African.

So, here are 10 points that you should memorise so that people will think you are the "Real Thing"

1. Flat Vowels (or Vaals, as we would pronounce it). No self respecting South African will ever use more than one vowel sound to join two consonants, no matter how many letters the word has. And of course if we can dispense with the vowel altogether, even better. So, Yu paak yor cah in the grudge.

2. Rrrrolll Yourrrr Rrrs - you know that Arrrrrr pirate sound you make once a year - well we do it everrry time that a worrrd has an rrr.

3. The glottal acceleration - many of the African languages have clicks etc, we don't use 'em in SA English, but do pronounce some words starting with vowels as if your breath was a sprinter coming out the blocks.

4. Yes is always "Ja" pronounced "Yah", except when its "Yebo".

5. No South African does things "in a minute", or "presently". Everything is done "just now". And we mean everything, except of course the things we will do "now now".

6. In SA to say you could "murder a Bagel" will bring understanding nods - Bagel is the word for a particularly irritating species, the male equivalent of the Jewish Princess, except being Jewish is totally optional. The female equivalent is a Kugel.

7. Being the "Rainbow Nation" there are naturally terms of endearment that the races use for one another - as an interesting experiment you could try randomly calling various fans of the beautiful game "kaffirs", "Klonkies", "goffels", "rockspiders", "rooineks" and see whose face lights up in delight at the realisation that you are "tuning them grief" and thus an opportunity to give you a "snotklap" (look it up) has arisen

8. For going to the Soccer (we call it soccer, not football) matches.....

9 .....ensure you have your Makaraba (hard hat festooned with all the symbols of fandom), take your Vuvuzela (very noisy trumpet), tank up on Dop (booze) before the match and yell Laduma! when your team scores and Eish! (with glottal accelleration) when they hit the post 5 minutes before the end of a 1-1 game.

10. Conversation in the game (when you are not blowing your vuvuzela) can be started with your neighbour by using the all time favourites:

- "The Referee is Blind" translates roughly as "Daai Fokkin Blinne Referee".
- "That gentleman is playacting for a foul" is (roughly) "Fokkin Moffie/Moegoe/Mompara/Mompie"
- "By jove - the referee has handed the South African goalkeeper a red card for an accidental collision, thereby ensuring they lose the game" is untranslateable on family blogs like this....

As to the necessary technology content, SA emains an enigma lght years ahead in many sevices - easpecially mobile ones - yet basics like broadband access and wifi are a rarity

*Sadly France were only beaten by 2-1 by The Boys and Uruguay failed to do the gentlemanly thing and score 4-0 vs Mexico to put Bafana Bafana through. Still, thinking about Bafana Bafana stats - win, draw, loss vs the 9th, 13th and 12th best teams in world is not bad when you're ranked 83rd! And if that fokkin blinne referee hadn't given the red card.....

Danah Boyd on the attraction of /b/ (aka 4chan) to intellectuals and digital pundits:

Journalists and academics are clamoring to discuss and analyze 4chan. At first, it was all about discussing whether or not this community of 9.5 million mostly young mostly male internet people was evil or brilliant. Lately, the obsession focuses on anonymity, signaling that Chris’ TED talk set the frame for public discourse about 4chan.

If one were a tad cynical one would reflect that its only since its recent mainstream popularity that there has been a clamour, its been going for at least 5 years to my knowledge .

In addition, by the way, the convention on the site is you do not talk about it - fat chance now that Time has featured it

Boyd's view is that 4Chan is hacking the attention economy like earlier generations of hackers hacked The Man of their days (phones, secure systems etc) - 4Chan just carries on the tradition of (mainly) young males left to their own infernal devices:

As with security hackers, the attention hackers that are popping up today are a mixed bag. It’s easy to love the cultural ethos and despise some of the individuals or the individual acts. In recognizing the cultural power of the community represented by 4chan, I don’t mean to justify some of the truly hateful things that some individuals have done. But I am willing to laugh off some of the stupidity and find humor in the antics while also rejecting certain acts. I’m willing to lament the fact that it’s been 20 years and underground hacking culture is still mostly white and mostly male while also being stoked to see a new underground subculture emerge. Of course, it doesn’t look like it’ll be underground for long… And I can’t say that I’m too thrilled for every mom and pop and average teen to know about 4chan (which is precisely why I haven’t blogged about it before). But I do think that there’s something important about those invested in hacking the attention economy. And I do hope that we always have people around us reminding us to never take the internets too seriously.

At the end of the day its just another geek countercultural outlet, like the altnet was in the days Before Web, like /. (slashdot) was in Web 1.0, but its been officially name as this generation's counterculture (Sez Time magazine) so no doubt there will soon be a raft of books and blogs written about it.....

But it has one very useful principle - it is arguing strongly for anomymity and non persistence on the 'Net, which is (in my view) a key componenet of privacy - and makes 4Chan well worth supporting. I have embedded the talk (by 4Chan founder "moot") from TED above.