Are we more innovative now than 100 years ago?

Last week I shared a podium with Bill Thompson and Peter Cochrane following a preview of the new BBC series on the emergence of the 'Net at Nico macDonald's Innovation Forum event on "The Internet - Next 40 Years" event. We have been doing some background research on the issue of Innovation in 2009 following a piece done for NESTA earlier this year on how Innovation was impacted by the Great Depression (answer: it flourished, and companies started then - Texas Instruments, Hewlett Packard etc - kept on being innovative until In Search Of Excellence was written).

At any rate, another thing I looked at was the history of innovation over the last 100 years, from 1909 to 2009. If I had a hypothesis before starting it would be that there was an accelerating pace of innovation. The results - so far - tell me that is not the case, and it is probably cyclical. In fact, one could argue that innovation in 1909, 1949 and 1969 was greater than 2009.

Heresy? Well, here's some thoughts for you. I looked at Innovation along a number of areas that "move the needle" as far as changing things is concerned, and here is a quick summary of the more detailed research:

1. Transport:

The period 1899 - 1909 went from Zero to Bleriot in powered flight, from horseless carriages to model T Fords and saw the launch of HMS Dreadnought in 1906, that was the culmination of a massive period of innovation as shipping went from wooden sailing ships to steam and steel, and from average speeds of 6 to 30 knots.

The period 1999-2009 saw the withdrawal of Concorde and the height of aerospace design being making ever bigger air buses. Land transport has seen very little significant advances since 1989 (Did you know there were probably more electric cars in 1909 as a % of cars than today) and shipping hasn't moved forward since containerisation. The speed of an omnibus through Central London has hardly changed in 100 years.

2. Communications

In the decade to 1909 moving pictures and radio were developed and telephony was the "Internet" of the era, expanding rapidly at the telegraph's expense and the first "wireless" telephony was tested.

In 2009 we are looking back at the rapid rise of broadband as high speed moved from 128kb/sec to (up to) 50 Mb/sec in the UK, faster elsewhere. A huge increase to be sure, but still roughly on a par with the jump in speed from telegraph to telephone.

3. Public Health

The 20 years to 1909 sees a concerted push on clean drinking water and elimination of major diseases via the biotechnology of the time in the "OECD". Child mortality rates halve nearly very decade going forward, average life expectancy starts to rise

The period to 2009 arguably sees a return in the "OECD" of diseases tat were being cleared up in 1909, and the major pharmaceutical companies have arguably shifted gear from solving the diseases of the many to solving the diseases of the rich, driving an increasing market in generic drugs and alternative medicines. Biotechnology and DNA based innovation continues apace, but whether it is more transformative than the work being done from the breakthroughs in chemistry and microbiology 100 years ago is debatable.

4.Utilities

In 1909, in the "OECD" Electricity is moving "into the Cloud" as generation becomes more industrialised, and is moving into the home. As noted above, water and sewage are increasingly being operated at citywide level or greater, and the consolidation of railways is nigh complete and the start of the consolidation of 6,000 telephone companies in the US is about to start.

In 2009 we see the energy focus is on "Green Energy" - but all the technologies are at least 30 years old with (arguably) little major advance in that period apart from solar energy - Wind and BioFuels in fact are still net negative energy generation technologies, and it is highly likely that much of the OECD's short term energy needs will be met from nuclear energy (a 1949 technology) or rebuilding coal based generation. Railroads are on the increase, via fast trains (first used in 1969), and water supplies in the OECD are not much advanced on 1909, but are better diffused - but in cities like London its getting worse as many of the pipes are still from the previous era.

5. Information Technology

The period around 1909 sees the formation of IBM, NCR and various manufacturers of mechanical computers (mainly for money handling).

In 2009 IT is still under the impact of Moore's Law, the integration with the internet allows it to benefit from Metcalfe's Law, and the emergence of Robotics as a seriously shape changing industry owing to the above shifts. This is the one area I looked at where the 1909 period is not showing material shift in capability.

6. The Smart Home

The period around 1909 sees the invention of electric versions of most of the domestic appliances we use today, the electric light bulb and early fluorescent lighting. The period around 2009 is seeing the first intelligent, networked domestic appliances in "smart homes" and the (legislated and not very popular) introduction of the first major step forward in light bulbs in decades. The growth in networked home security would make little sense in 1909 as security was not nearly as much an issue in the first place. In 1909 home delivery was fairly common from the butchers; bakers and candlestick makers' "boys", in 2009 online ordering/physical delivery is reversing a mid century trend towards "consumer carries".

7. Media

In 1909, Radio and Film are starting to impact the traditional media, censorship is emerging in movies due to the rise in "adult" content (all new media see major innovation from porn in their early days), and are the first big hits on the hegemony of Print media. In 2009 Web based Video and Audio is starting to impact TV and Radio, and the Internet is starting to impact Print media. In 1909 music was largely user generated round the family piano, in 2009 it is far more "user generated" than for the previous 60 years

8. Human Freedom

The 1909 period sees the organisation of labour as a pressure group and it becoming a political force, and the emergence of female emancipation as a campaign issue (the Suffragettes ring a bell?). 2009 sees Environmentalism and a form of Anti-Capitalist/Globalisation movement as the main campaigning causes. Arguably the Environment could be a bigger issue, but labour and female emancipation is a pretty impressive ticket for 1909.

We also looked at 1929 (more a period of consolidation of the turn of the century), 1949 (massive innovation during and immediately after WW2), 1969 (huge innovation spilling out from space race and Cold War (including the DARPANet) and large R&D labs like Bell, BT etc are in their heyday. 1989 again looks like a period of consolidation. I've put up above 4 of the 6 decades in an early-day "Innovation Index" slide I did for the event (1969 being a key year to look at), and I put in 1929 due to the Crunch connotations). The Index is showing innovation in each sector relative to the others decades, so green = high, red = not high. Using a simple green = 3, red =1 scale allows a rough numerical index that argues - across all the areas - we are relatively less innovative today.

Now, you can argue that in 2009 we are seeing Nano and a host of technologies, but you can also fairly easily find similar very significant breakthroughs in the similar 1889 - 1909 period (X rays anyone?). You can also argue that diffusion of innovation is far faster today, but that is - arguably - not an acceleration of innovation in itself.

So in conclusion, although we think of ourselves as the most innovative generation, Evah!, the truth is that we are not as far ahead as we would like to think, and in fact, given the comms advances we have today, it is arguable we should be a lot better at it - in fact, one could argue that some things are going backwards, and to an extent we are actually resting on the laurels of work done in the last 100 years.

Looking at why innovation may be less than it could be, we see 3 potential major trends emergent in the last 20 years:

- Risk aversion - a lot of innovation today is more about making things safer, more reliable (the positives of risk aversion) but arguably we also have far lower ambitions. Today any major scientific program inevitably hits the "we could spend this on [choose your short term cause here]" (The day I did my talk this was exactly the complaint aired on the BBC about the new Aries 5 rocket NASA launched).

- Short Termism - National and Corporate R&D has largely been racked back and there is an increasing short termist view on how money is used. In fact, in may sectors there has been more innovation in the financial side than the product side, which has often used "globalisation" as a way of avoiding unionised and minimum wage labour in "OECD" countries and outsourced work to much lower wage countries.

- IPR/Patent blockages in OECD countries slows down cycles. In the decades before 1909 the USA wilfully ignored British and European Patent rules for "Pirate Innovation", and arguably China and a few other countries are doing the same today.

Being a bit more sanguine, we see a number of social trends kicking off now, driven by the IT/Net and other drivers (the crunch, shifts in global power, economics of energy. various philosophical/religious fundamentalisms) promise to be significant in the future, so we suspect that the 2009 - 2029 period will - as the Depression did - drive major innovation