Technology, Idealists, Utopians, Hype and Chasms

Interesting article on Johnny Holland about the tribes that follow radical innovations:

Research by anthropologists and sociologists has found that the introduction of an idea or innovation into a society creates two groups: utopians and idealists. The idealist has a conservative world view and is content with the status quo. The utopian on the other hand has a revolutionary world view and want to transform society with new ideas. Recent research has shown that this concept holds true for the introduction of new products and services.

Not sure that the term "idealist" quite captures a conservative, change resisting sort of bod, but hey thats soft sciences for you . Anyway, moving on......

This concept of utopians and idealists comes from Karl Mannheim, one of the founding fathers of sociology. Mannheim saw that the utopians wanted to make the world a better place by innovation and new ideas, while the idealists where worried that the world would deteriorate, if untested new ideas where introduced. His book ‘An Ideology And Utopia: An Introduction To The Sociology Of Knowledge‘ introduced the concept of sociology of knowledge.

He saw that if you shaped an idea to suit the needs of an idealist it would discourage the utopian, because the utopian wants change and their view of the idealists is that they are a barrier to change.

Mannheim studied the political movements in 1930’s Berlin, but more recent research has shown his concept holds true for products and innovations. An example of two products fitting into the utopians and idealists camps is the battle between Mac and PC. A general perception is that the PC user sees no need of paying more for a computer. The PC is good enough, and if they changed to Mac they would have to learn a whole new way of doing things, and it would be a waste of time. Equally, there is the perception that the Mac user belief is that the PC users spend far too much time dealing with technical issues, computer viruses, and many other things, and their life would be better if only they used a Mac.

They then argue that Macs are for Utopians, PCs are for idealists:

The battle between Mac and PC may not be as alarming as the battles between the Communists, and Nazis in 1930’s Berlin. But Apple through its marketing makes it just as revolutionary to some. Research by WPP’s, (the advertising conglomerate), BrandZ shows Apples brand messages actually puts off the idealists [PDF], but encourages the utopians. Apples adverting ‘call to action’ are a Revolutionary message to buy an Apple. The first Macintosh TV ad ‘Why 1984 will not be like 1984’ emphasised this message. This was continued with the ‘Think Different’ campaign, followed by the ‘I am a PC vs. I am a Mac’.

The argument is that if you are introducing a new product (applies to service, idea, etc too I think) into a new market, it is more suitable to identify and research the needs of the Utopians.The only problem is that there is a limit to the number Utopians - Apple typically tops out at c 15% of a market, even though it is a revolutionary early entrant (Microcomputer, mobile music, mobile 'Phone.......).

In fact, I'd hypothesize that the number of Utopians is a fairly close map to the number of Early Adopters that one gets before hitting The Chasm. As evidence I'd use the Hype Curve - there is very little "bad news bear" talk going in the early days of the New New Thing's rush up the hype curve - in fact, if you are a voluble sceptic (Cue Andrew Keen, stage left) you get vilified. Its only when the chasm between the promise and the reality manifests itself outside of the Kool Aid Drinking sect that reality occurs, and it all falls into the Slough of Despond.