Web Media in 2007 - Predictions, Predilections and Predications

Was reading New Scientist's summary of 2007 predictions when I came across the Will Video For Food blogsite's 2007 predictions for Web Video Media. Most of the points made are fairly standard stuff - convergence, consolidation, consortia cross-overs etc, as our attention shifts from Broadcast TV to Web TV - but there were 3 interesting ones. To summarise (Original points in italics):

8. Marketers will get smarter about how they gain consumer mindshare through online video. The self-created viral videos will give way to more creative partnerships between brands and top video creators. These deals will be efficient for marketers, and highly profitable for video creators with low budgets. We’ll see increasingly fewer $250K viral video series created by agencies, and more low-budget, fun videos that were inspired by amateurs but get the media support of advertising budgets.

So, the rise of Marketer funded User Created Content - makes a change to the Ad Funded models so prevalent today - Now map this to the next one.....

9. Real vs. fake will be a major 2007 theme. People don’t understand that some videos are designed to be “story telling,” and others are real footage. LonelyGirl15 was an example of a deliberate ruse, but many other “are they real or not” videos are endlessly dissected by comments. This will catch media’s attention, since they’ll enjoy raising viewer concerns about the integrity and validity of this threatening medium.

Given the blogstorm over the Acer Ferrari / Vista / Edelman Great Laptop Giveaway this is a very safe bet. However, if you take this and the one above and then what is essentially being predicted is a flurry of made-for-Web TV "fake" videostories funded by marketers (Soap companies, surely?). User generated plots, scripts and even clips are bound to be used.

Soap Operettas here we come....

10. The “big boy” sites are going to start sharing advertising revenue with select creators like some smaller sites (Revver, Metacafe, Blip, Brightcove, Lulu). That means Google, YouTube, Yahoo and AOL will finally realize that good content means eyeballs. And eyeballs means more revenue.


...and the Soap Operetta Industry will use GooTube et al as its "Channels" rather than conventional TV. So, will Yahoo, GooTube etc be vying to produce "must see" Soap Operettas, Chat Shows and Reality TV events etc for Web TV, watching the weekly HitWise to see how their Prime Attention Ratings (Time will not be the factor anymore) are doing.

As we are all escaping the old media, the answer must be to supply more of it on the new channels, along with all those exciting adverts. You....Willl....Watch..This...Stuff.

This all sounds so dreary, depressing and downright dull that it must be about right

So, for some relief I turned to the usually upbeat Wired magazine's predictions, and there is was again:

Online Sitcom Picked Up by Network

Encouraged by the news, the internet becomes home to 5,000 clones of Friends, shot by friends using their friends but unwatched even by their friends.


And worse...if you recall, 2006 was going to be the Year for Mobile TV. well, it turns out that 2007 will be the Year for mobile TV too!
Just in case you missed your favourite Soap Operetta....

Sigh....by this time I will be reading the Spam because its bound to be more interesting, which is fortunate as:

Spam Doubles

No-brainer -- but no one cares because we're all using IM, especially at work.


All using IM - really - I thought we were all supposed to be using RSS to watch the Soap Operettas?

The problem with IM is, like telephony, it has no intrinsic ability for time shifting. The person you want has to be alive, awake and sentient on the other side of the line to communicate. That is the whole point and major benefit of email, it is asynchronous. Can you imagine keeping 400 odd IM sessions going at any one time instead of an email intray!

Still, there is some hope as:

NYT Goes Free

The New York Times opens its archives from behind the paid firewall, realizing it's more lucrative to be the internet's paper of record than charging readers for individual stories. Thankfully, Thomas Friedman's clichés and mixed metaphors remain behind the pay firewall for at least two weeks.

Thanks heavens for that...an online alternative to interminable Soap Operettas. But soft, what is this:

MySpace Spaces Out

MySpace splinters as teens head for niche sites. New services that control profiles across multiple social networking sites begin to take off.

Looks like MySpace better get itself into the Soap Operetta game and and fast (whats that - they are already pumping Fox programming through.....).

However, the main allusion here is to the rise (in hype anyway) of Digital Lifestyle Aggregators (or DLAs - they must be on the up as they even have a TLA now). The idea is that I am going to put all those various 'Net profiles of mine into one aggregator, and have one 'Net Identity. It must be a Good Thing because Esther Dyson has taken a stake in one, and Mark Cantor is promoting another....and they are mushrooming all over apparently. And they want to advertise to you, with their unique knowledge of you, your predilections, proclivities and other stuff hitherto you preferred to keep private.

In other words, yet another Personal Portal play.

Maybe its time to start the first DLAA (DLA 2.0?), where one aggregates and sells personal purchasing patterns straight back to the advertisers and misses out these meddling middle men.

But here is the real issue

Many of these predictions / trends / whatever are predicated on people having the time and money to absorb all this new stuff - but what will give way?. There is just too much "stuff" out there, and there are too many people jostling for our limited attention and wallets. If I had a New Years Resolution it would be to only adopt new stuff that simplifies things - either directly, or by being more productive and so giving me more time to manage all the other complexities.

I don't want my Digital Lifestyle to be Aggregated. I want it to be Simplified.

I want new services that reduce the amount of Digital Lifestylettes I have to sign up to, or by golly I'll do it myself by exiting many of them. I don't want Rivers of Data, I want a small stream of useful, timely Information. That means edited, expurgated, eradicated content. Made more private. Given increased trust in those jostling for my attention. (and I include Google here - too gamed, promoting its own ads etc etc - please don't be tempted to Do Evil, guys - you only know the real value of trust once you have lost it).

The big problem now is the Signal to Noise ratio is just too low in most Online Media. Anything that helps fix it will take a real premium in 2007.